News-based estimate
What we know
Four candidate countries are advancing in their EU membership negotiations.
Iceland is preparing for a referendum to restart EU negotiations, indicating interest in membership.
Ukraine and Moldova have opened accession talks, reflecting ongoing EU expansion efforts.
No prediction market covers this directly — estimated from news coverage alone.
Read from 4 news sources — no market data available
Why this forecast
Recent news indicates significant progress in EU enlargement negotiations, with four candidate countries moving forward. This suggests a favorable environment for potential new memberships by 2027, despite the absence of direct market data on this specific question.
Key development
Four countries are advancing in their EU membership negotiations, marking a significant step in the enlargement process.
Supporting signals
- ✓The EU has opened accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, indicating a commitment to enlargement.
- ✓Iceland's potential referendum suggests renewed interest in EU membership, which could influence the timeline.
Risk factors
- ⚠Political instability in candidate countries could delay negotiations.
- ⚠Opposition from existing EU member states may hinder the accession process.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current political momentum for EU enlargement continues.
- ✓Candidate countries maintain their commitment to necessary reforms.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Recent context · 4 sources+
apnews.com
It’s ‘Super Tuesday’ for EU enlargement as 4 candidates move forward with negotiations - AP News
greenwichtime.com
It's 'Super Tuesday' for EU enlargement as 4 candidates move forward with negotiations - Greenwich Time
theguardian.com
Why the EU should be moving heaven and earth to get Iceland into the club | Valérie Hayer - The Guardian
forbes.com
EU Opens Accession Talks With Ukraine As Russia’s Invasion Continues - Forbes