News-based estimate
What we know
Montenegro is expected to join the EU, indicating a trend towards expansion.
The UK continues to face political and economic challenges post-Brexit, but there are no indications of other countries planning to leave.
The EU has introduced new customs duties, which may affect member countries but does not suggest exits.
No prediction market covers this directly — estimated from news coverage alone.
Read from 4 news sources — no market data available
⚡The news indicates a focus on EU expansion, contrasting with the idea of a country leaving.
Forecast update
Updated 22d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
No prediction markets cover the specific question of a European country leaving the EU by 2028, and the recent news does not indicate any strong movements towards such an event. The markets suggest a very low probability of any country leaving the EU in the 2020s.
No market data directly supports this question, so the probabilities are based on general sentiment and market trends.
Key development
Recent news indicates that Montenegro is set to join the EU, suggesting a trend towards expansion rather than exits.
Supporting signals
- ✓Montenegro's planned entry into the EU suggests a focus on integration rather than exits.
- ✓The historical context of Brexit shows that leaving the EU has significant political and economic repercussions, making other exits less likely.
Risk factors
- ⚠Rising nationalist sentiments in some EU countries could lead to calls for referendums.
- ⚠Economic crises or significant political shifts could prompt a reconsideration of EU membership.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current EU member states remain committed to the union.
- ✓No major political upheavals occur that would lead to a country seeking to leave.
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Sources & data
Recent context · 4 sources+
politico.eu
Montenegro joining EU will cost ‘less than a coffee,’ says Commission - politico.eu
washingtonpost.com
Britain left the EU 10 years ago. Its politics has been an unruly mess ever since - The Washington Post
nytimes.com
The U.K. Is Still Counting the Cost of Brexit, 10 Years After the Vote - The New York Times
retailgazette.co.uk
Shein and Temu hit by new EU customs duty on cheap parcels - Retail Gazette