Collective forecast
Very Likely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 82–94% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The news suggests a potential shift in sentiment, contrasting with the market's strong confidence in Putin remaining in power.
Forecast update
Updated 25d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a high probability (89.2%) that Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia at the end of 2026. Recent news, however, highlights a significant bet on his ouster, suggesting some market participants believe there is a chance he could leave office before then, but overall sentiment remains strongly in favor of him staying in power.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 82-94%.
Key development
A mysterious bettor placed a $400,000 wager predicting Putin will not be president by the end of 2026, indicating growing skepticism about his tenure.
Supporting signals
- ✓The market shows a strong 89.2% probability that Putin will remain president until the end of 2026.
- ✓A large bet on Polymarket indicates that some investors are anticipating a change in leadership.
Risk factors
- ⚠Increased domestic unrest or political challenges could lead to a change in leadership.
- ⚠International pressures or sanctions might influence Putin's position.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current political dynamics in Russia remain stable.
- ✓No significant external events drastically alter the political landscape.
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
forbes.com
Mystery Polymarket Bettor Stakes Around $400,000 On Putin's Ouster Before End Of Year - Forbes
mediaite.com
Mysterious Polymarket Bettor Makes Massive Wager That Putin Will Be Out of Power By Year’s End - Mediaite
blockchain.news
Drone hits raise Russia strain; Polymarket sees 11.5% chance Putin exits by 2026 - blockchain.news
united24media.com
Someone Just Bet $409,000 on Putin Losing Power by the End of 2026 - UNITED24 Media