Collective forecast
Likely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 73–90% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The news suggests a more negative outlook on Putin's stability than the market prices imply.
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a strong belief that Putin will still be President when the war in Ukraine ends, with an 83.1% probability. Recent news suggests that while Putin is facing significant challenges in the war, the market sentiment remains optimistic about his hold on power.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 73-90%.
Key development
Reports indicate that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, and Putin is becoming increasingly desperate.
Supporting signals
- ✓The market shows a high probability (83.1%) that Putin will remain in power, indicating confidence in his leadership despite the war's challenges.
- ✓Historical patterns suggest that leaders often maintain power during prolonged conflicts, even amid public discontent.
Risk factors
- ⚠A significant military defeat could lead to a loss of support for Putin within Russia.
- ⚠Internal dissent or a coup could emerge if the war continues to go poorly.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Putin maintains control over the military and political apparatus in Russia.
- ✓The war does not escalate to a point that leads to a regime change.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
theatlantic.com
The Dictator in His Labyrinth - The Atlantic
theatlantic.com
Putin Is Slipping Into Delusion - The Atlantic
theguardian.com
Russia is losing the war in Ukraine, and Putin is desperate. But that’s when he’s at his most dangerous - The Guardian
washingtonpost.com
As war stalls, Putin concedes he never cut a deal with Trump in Alaska - The Washington Post