Topic

Economy

Forecasts about interest rates, inflation, recession risk, and the broader macroeconomic path.

Most likely

Will US national debt exceed $40 trillion by 2027?

97%

Will a major US bank fail in 2026?

⚡

70%

Will the S&P 500 close 2026 up more than 10%?

58%

Will the unemployment rate exceed 5% in the US in 2026?

⚡

54%

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

⚡

36%

Will the UK economy avoid recession in 2026?

⚡

32%

5% more men than women in the US by 2055?

⚡

30%

Will gold prices exceed $3,000 an ounce in 2026?

⚡

26%

Will US GDP growth exceed 3% in 2026?

⚡

12%

US recession in 2026?

12%

Most uncertain