Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 7–20% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
Forecast update
Updated 20d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 12% probability of a US recession occurring in 2026, which is the only directly relevant market available. This suggests a relatively low expectation for a recession in that year.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 7-20%.
Key development
The Federal Reserve's stress test indicates that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession.
Supporting signals
- ✓The Federal Reserve's stress test confirms banks can withstand a severe recession.
- ✓Rising auto sales indicate strong consumer spending.
- ✓Current economic indicators show resilience in certain sectors.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected geopolitical events could trigger economic downturns.
- ⚠Inflationary pressures may lead to tighter monetary policy.
- ⚠A significant decline in consumer confidence could impact spending.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current economic growth trends continue.
- ✓No major financial crises occur before 2026.
- ✓Consumer spending remains stable.
How this could unfold
Explore
Run the simulation
Replay this forecast 1,000 times, drawing from its own uncertainty band each time — watch how often recession in 2026 actually happens.
Build a scenario
Toggle the assumptions this forecast depends on, stack as many as you like, and run them together.
Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cnbc.com
Opening Bell: July 10, 2026 - CNBC
federalreserve.gov
Federal Reserve Board's annual bank stress test confirms that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and able to continue to lend to households and businesses - Federal Reserve (.gov)
icis.com
US June auto sales rise by 4.4% year on year as Q2 ends on strong note – ICIS analyst - ICIS
logisticsmgmt.com
PwC midyear outlook sees rising transportation dealmaking activity focused on premium assets - Logistics Management
Underlying indicator
Real GDP
24180.42$B
Source: FRED · GDPC1