Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 7–20% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 12% probability of a US recession occurring in 2026, which is the only directly relevant market available. This suggests a relatively low expectation of recession at that time, despite some economic uncertainties.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 7-20%.
Key development
The Federal Reserve's stress test indicates that large banks are well-positioned to weather a severe recession, which may support economic stability.
Supporting signals
- ✓The Federal Reserve's stress test shows banks can withstand a severe recession.
- ✓Recent auto sales data indicates a strong consumer market.
- ✓IMF's global growth forecast suggests a rebound in 2027.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected geopolitical events could impact economic stability.
- ⚠Inflation rates may rise, affecting consumer spending.
- ⚠Changes in fiscal policy could alter economic forecasts.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current economic policies remain in place.
- ✓Consumer confidence continues to support spending.
- ✓Global economic conditions stabilize.
Explore
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
federalreserve.gov
Federal Reserve Board's annual bank stress test confirms that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and able to continue to lend to households and businesses - Federal Reserve (.gov)
icis.com
US June auto sales rise by 4.4% year on year as Q2 ends on strong note – ICIS analyst - ICIS
reuters.com
IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3%, sees rebound in 2027 - Reuters
logisticsmgmt.com
PwC midyear outlook sees rising transportation dealmaking activity focused on premium assets - Logistics Management
Underlying indicator
Real GDP
24180.42$B
Source: FRED · GDPC1