58% — Will the S&P 500 close 2026 up more than 10%?

Collective forecast

Synthesized

58%

Uncertain

Closes up more than 10%58%

Closes 10% or less42%

Confidencemedium· ▲ news bullish

2 markets broadly agree (11pp spread) on low trading volume.

Based on 2 prediction markets

90% range 52–64% · moderate uncertainty (market consensus)

Forecast update

Updated 25d ago

First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.

Why this forecast

The markets suggest a moderate likelihood of the S&P 500 closing above significant thresholds, indicating a positive outlook for the index. Recent news highlights rising optimism over corporate earnings, which supports the potential for a strong market performance in 2026.

Statistically pooled from 2 matched markets (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 52-64%.

Key development

Rising optimism over corporate earnings has driven the U.S. stock market to new heights in 2026.

Supporting signals

✓RBC Capital Markets has lifted its S&P 500 price target, indicating confidence in market growth.
✓The U.S. stock market has reached new heights in 2026, driven by optimism in corporate earnings.

Risk factors

⚠Potential volatility in the market could hinder sustained growth.
⚠Economic challenges or unexpected downturns in corporate profits could negatively impact the index.

This forecast assumes