Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 1–2% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
⚡The market probability of a rate cut is significantly lower than the general expectation set by recent news, indicating a strong bearish sentiment.
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a very low probability of a rate cut at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the prevailing sentiment that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to reduce rates in the near future. Recent news supports this view, highlighting a divided Federal Reserve that anticipates no cuts before early 2027.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 1-2%.
Key development
The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates before early 2027, according to recent FOMC meeting minutes.
Supporting signals
- ✓FOMC minutes show a divided Fed with no cuts expected before early 2027.
- ✓Recent projections from FOMC members indicate a higher likelihood of rate hikes.
- ✓Geopolitical tensions are influencing Fed policy towards maintaining or increasing rates.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected economic downturn could lead to a change in Fed policy.
- ⚠Inflation rates may stabilize or decrease, prompting a reconsideration of rate cuts.
- ⚠Political pressures could influence the Fed's decision-making process.
This forecast assumes
- ✓The current economic conditions remain stable without significant downturns.
- ✓Inflation continues to be a concern for the Federal Reserve.
- ✓The Federal Reserve maintains its current leadership and policy direction.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
forbes.com
Fed Likely Won’t Cut Interest Rates This Year, Minutes Show - Forbes
finance.yahoo.com
Fed 'dot plot': Almost half of FOMC members project at least one interest rate hike this year - Yahoo Finance
washingtonpost.com
All eyes turn to Fed chair Kevin Warsh and his first moves on interest rates - The Washington Post
cryptobriefing.com
Goldman Sachs cuts year-end gold target to $4,900 amid stable Fed rate outlook - Crypto Briefing
Underlying indicator
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
Source: FRED · FEDFUNDS