Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 11–28% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The news suggests a stronger likelihood of a delay compared to the market's current pricing.
Forecast update
Updated 18d ago
↓ 3.3percentage points this week
▲2 new supporting signals
Why this forecast
The market indicates a low probability of OpenAI filing for an IPO in 2026, currently at 17.8%. Recent news suggests that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO to 2027 due to market uncertainties, which aligns with the market's skepticism about a 2026 filing.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 11-28%.
Key development
OpenAI is reportedly leaning towards delaying its IPO to 2027 amid market uncertainties.
Supporting signals
Risk factors
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Sources & data
forbes.com
OpenAI Considers Delaying IPO To 2027 After SpaceX's Rocky Debut, Report Says - Forbes
cryptobriefing.com
Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX advance toward IPOs amid market buzz - Crypto Briefing
smartasset.com
OpenAI Stock IPO: Expected Valuation, Timeline and Investment Options - SmartAsset.com
cnbc.com
OpenAI is reportedly delaying its IPO. Here's when Kalshi traders think it will announce - CNBC