Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 8–21% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
Forecast update
Updated 19d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a low probability of Donald Trump being pardoned before 2027, currently at 12.8%. Recent news shows Trump has been active in granting pardons, but these have primarily been for political allies and donors, which may not include himself.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 8-21%.
Key development
Trump has recently pardoned several individuals, but these actions appear to favor political allies rather than himself.
Supporting signals
- ✓Trump's recent pardons suggest he is actively using his clemency powers.
- ✓The political context may influence his decision to pardon himself.
Risk factors
- ⚠Legal challenges could prevent any self-pardon.
- ⚠Public opinion may pressure Trump against self-pardoning.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Trump remains politically active until 2027.
- ✓No significant legal barriers arise that would prevent a pardon.
How this could unfold
Explore
Run the simulation
Replay this forecast 1,000 times, drawing from its own uncertainty band each time — watch how often pardoned before 2027 actually happens.
Build a scenario
Toggle the assumptions this forecast depends on, stack as many as you like, and run them together.
Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
washingtonpost.com
Trump pardons former Abramoff partner, 9 people convicted of violating vehicle emissions controls - The Washington Post
washingtonpost.com
Trump pardons a major donor and violators of the Clean Air Act - The Washington Post
apnews.com
Trump pardons former Abramoff partner, 9 people convicted of violating vehicle emissions controls - AP News
usatoday.com
Trump pardons Clean Air Act violators: 'I am setting them free' - USA Today