Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 10–25% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market probability of 15.7% is notably lower than the estimated risk implied by the news coverage, which suggests a higher likelihood of running out of weapons.
Forecast update
Updated 19d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The Manifold market indicates a 15.7% probability that the US will run out of weapons in 2026, which is the closest match to the user's question. Recent news highlights significant depletion of US weapon stockpiles due to ongoing conflicts, suggesting a heightened risk of running out of weapons, but the market still reflects a stronger belief that this will not occur.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 10-25%.
Key development
US weapon stockpiles are significantly depleted, raising concerns about military readiness.
Supporting signals
- ✓Ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine are depleting US weapon stockpiles.
- ✓Recent news indicates that the US military's ability to fight future wars is at risk due to depleted stocks.
Risk factors
- ⚠Escalation of conflicts could further deplete weapon stockpiles.
- ⚠Failure to ramp up production may lead to shortages.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current conflicts continue at their current intensity.
- ✓Defense production capabilities can be increased in response to demand.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cnn.com
Iran war heats up while US weapon stocks remain depleted, risking military’s ability to fight future wars - CNN
nypost.com
Defense industry’s major players gather in Pennsylvania as US weapon stockpiles hit new low - New York Post
english.alarabiya.net
Trump presses defense executives to boost weapons production - Al Arabiya English
theguardian.com
Europe faces up to prospect US may be unable to arm Nato allies - The Guardian