Collective forecast
Uncertain
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 37–65% · wide band — highly uncertain (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market probability of 50.7% suggests a more optimistic outlook than the recent news indicates, which highlights ongoing challenges.
Forecast update
Updated 18d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 50.7% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026, which aligns closely with the current news suggesting ongoing negotiations and challenges. Recent articles highlight significant hurdles that could delay the Act, but the market still reflects a slight optimism about its passage.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 37-65%.
Key development
Negotiations for the CLARITY Act are at a critical stage, with significant political challenges remaining.
Supporting signals
- ✓The market shows a slight majority belief that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law.
- ✓Senate negotiations are ongoing, which could lead to a resolution.
Risk factors
- ⚠Political opposition could derail the Act's passage.
- ⚠Unforeseen delays in Senate voting could push the timeline further.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current negotiations will lead to a vote.
- ✓No major political shifts will occur that could impact the Act.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
coindesk.com
In Clarity Act's final weeks, its path through U.S. Senate not ...
forbes.com
CLARITY Act Delay Is Now A Compliance Problem, Not ...
bitcoinfoundation.org
Senate Crypto Bill Negotiations Reach Critical Stage
en.bloomingbit.io
Polymarket Odds of CLARITY Act Becoming Law by Year-End Drop to 48% From 74%