Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 9–24% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market's 15% probability for Rubio winning contrasts with the positive news sentiment surrounding his candidacy.
Forecast update
Updated 18d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 15% probability for Marco Rubio winning the 2028 Presidential election, reflecting a low level of confidence in his candidacy. Recent news suggests a growing support for Rubio among Jewish Republicans and backing from influential donors, which could positively influence his chances.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 9-24%.
Key development
Marco Rubio is gaining support from Jewish Republicans and key donors, positioning him favorably for the 2028 election.
Supporting signals
- ✓Recent news highlights Rubio's growing support among key Republican demographics.
- ✓Influential donors are backing Rubio, which could enhance his campaign resources.
Risk factors
- ⚠JD Vance could regain support among Republicans if controversies subside.
- ⚠Other candidates may emerge that could split the Republican vote.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Rubio maintains his current level of support among key demographics.
- ✓No major scandals or controversies arise that could damage Rubio's candidacy.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
timesofisrael.com
Souring on JD Vance, many Jewish Republicans rally behind Marco Rubio for 2028 - The Times of Israel
jpost.com
Jewish Republicans turn on JD Vance to rally behind Marco Rubio ahead of 2028 elections - The Jerusalem Post
axios.com
Scoop: GOP megadonor Ken Griffin says he'd back Rubio over Vance in 2028 - Axios
yahoo.com
Vance and Rubio take different approaches as Iran tests their 2028 prospects - Yahoo