Topic
AI
Forecasts about model releases, AI capability milestones, and how fast the technology is actually moving versus the hype.
Most likely
Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Will AI replace most white-collar jobs by 2030?
⚡Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?
Will AI be able to provide an end-to-end plan for bioweapons production by 2026 EOY?
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 in 2026?
Will Nvidia remain the dominant AI chip supplier through 2027?
⚡Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030
Most uncertain
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
⚡Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026?
Will Apple release a major AI-powered product beyond Siri upgrades by 2027?
⚡AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
Will Anthropic release a new Claude model in 2026?
⚡Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
⚡Is the LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard trustworthy?
Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030