Collective forecast
Uncertain
Single market source with high trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 32–59% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
Forecast update
Updated 21d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 45% probability that a large language model will beat a super grandmaster in chess by the end of 2028. This reflects a significant level of uncertainty about the capabilities of AI in competitive chess, especially against highly skilled human players.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 32-59%.
Key development
Recent advancements in AI language models suggest they are becoming increasingly sophisticated, but no direct evidence indicates they will surpass super grandmasters in chess by 2028.
Supporting signals
- ✓Recent studies show AI's language processing capabilities are improving, which may translate to better strategic thinking in chess.
- ✓The historical trend of AI improving in games suggests potential for breakthroughs.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected advancements in chess strategies by human players could outpace AI development.
- ⚠Technical limitations in AI's ability to process complex game scenarios may hinder performance.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current trends in AI development continue without major setbacks.
- ✓The competitive landscape in chess remains stable without significant rule changes.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
techcrunch.com
Amazon will stop accepting new customers for Mechanical Turk - TechCrunch
spacedaily.com
In January 2026, scientists reported that the human brain processes spoken language in a sequence that closely mirrors the layered architecture of advanced AI language models — suggesting that biological brains and artificial networks may build meaning th - Space Daily
time.com
World Models Are AI’s Next Frontier - Time Magazine
usatoday.com
New Free Privacy Focused Android App Allows a Record Breaking 70 Billion Parameter AI Model to Run Entirely Offline on High-End Android Devices - USA Today