Collective forecast
Uncertain
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 46–73% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market for Gemini achieving a perfect score on the IMO 2026 indicates a 60% probability, reflecting a strong belief in its capabilities. This aligns with the general optimism surrounding AI advancements, particularly in competitive environments like the IMO.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 46-73%.
Supporting signals
- ✓The market indicates a 60% probability for Gemini achieving a perfect score, suggesting confidence in its performance.
- ✓Gemini's design and training may provide it with a competitive edge in mathematical problem-solving.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected challenges in the competition format could hinder performance.
- ⚠Other AI models may outperform Gemini, affecting its chances.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Gemini's training data is comprehensive and relevant to IMO problems.
- ✓The competition format remains consistent with previous years.
Explore
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
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