Collective forecast
Unlikely
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 21–45% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market for the open-source model achieving a perfect score is significantly lower than the general market for AI models achieving perfect scores, indicating a divergence in confidence levels.
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market for the open-source AI model achieving a perfect score in the IMO 2026 is currently at 31.8%. Given the recent news highlighting the impressive performance of the GLM-5.2 model, there is some optimism, but it remains significantly below the threshold for a perfect score. The other market indicates a much higher likelihood for AI models achieving perfect scores in general, suggesting a broader confidence in AI capabilities.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 21-45%.
Key development
The GLM-5.2 open-source AI model has received positive reviews for its performance, but it is still uncertain if it can achieve a perfect score in a competitive environment like the IMO.
Supporting signals
- ✓GLM-5.2 has received positive reviews for its performance in coding and math tasks.
- ✓The competitive landscape is intensifying with the release of GPT-5.6, which may affect the performance of open-source models.
Risk factors
- ⚠The IMO is a highly competitive environment where many factors can influence performance.
- ⚠Other AI models may outperform the GLM-5.2, affecting its chances of achieving a perfect score.
This forecast assumes
- ✓The performance of AI models in the IMO will be influenced by their training and capabilities.
- ✓No major changes in the competition format or judging criteria will occur.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
businessinsider.com
I tried China's buzzy free AI. The wait was painful, but the answers impressed me. - Business Insider
axios.com
GPT-5.6 buzz builds. Here's what to know about OpenAI's new Sol model - Axios
reuters.com
Major AI models at a glance - Reuters
axios.com
OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 and ChatGPT Work tool - Axios