Collective forecast
Uncertain
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 43–71% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market probability of 57.6% is significantly higher than the adjusted estimate of 30%, indicating a divergence due to recent political developments.
Forecast update
Updated 25d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 57.6% probability of troops or federal agents being present at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028. However, recent news suggests significant political opposition to this idea, including a proposed bill to prevent such actions, which likely contributes to a lower adjusted probability.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 43-71%.
Key development
Sen. Slotkin plans to introduce a bill to bar presidents from sending troops or armed federal agents to polling places.
Supporting signals
- ✓The introduction of a bill by Sen. Slotkin indicates strong political resistance to armed federal presence at polls.
- ✓Expert opinions suggest that the deployment of federal agents at polling places is highly unlikely.
Risk factors
- ⚠Changes in political leadership could alter the current stance on federal presence at polls.
- ⚠Unexpected events or threats could lead to a deployment of federal agents despite opposition.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current political opposition remains strong against armed federal presence at polling places.
- ✓No significant changes in public sentiment regarding election security occur.
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cnn.com
"This is just not going to happen": Elections expert responds to possibility of ICE agents at polling locations - CNN
nbcnews.com
Sen. Slotkin to introduce bill to bar presidents from sending troops or armed feds to polling places - NBC News
apnews.com
Another New York resident says he was warned by officers after criticizing ICE - AP News
thehill.com
Mullin says ICE ‘only’ deployed at midterm polls if ‘threat’ arises - The Hill