Collective forecast
Uncertain
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 38–66% · wide band — highly uncertain (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market probability is slightly higher than the current sentiment from the news, which reflects uncertainty about Iran's compliance.
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 52.1% probability that the US will reimpose a blockade on Iran by the end of July 2026. Recent news suggests a ceasefire agreement has been reached, but the US has warned of a blockade's return if Iran fails to comply, indicating a significant risk of reimposition.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 38-66%.
Key development
The US has lifted its blockade on Iran but warned it will be reimposed if Iran does not fulfill its commitments.
Supporting signals
- ✓The US lifted its blockade on Iran, indicating a temporary easing of tensions.
- ✓The US has explicitly stated it will reimpose the blockade if Iran does not comply with the agreement.
- ✓Iran's recent actions, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, suggest ongoing tensions and potential for conflict.
Risk factors
- ⚠Iran's non-compliance with the terms of the ceasefire could lead to a reimposition of the blockade.
- ⚠Geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly involving Israel, could escalate the situation.
- ⚠Domestic political pressures in the US could influence decisions regarding Iran.
This forecast assumes
- ✓The ceasefire agreement remains in effect and is not violated by either party.
- ✓The US administration continues to prioritize diplomatic solutions over military actions.
- ✓Iran's actions in the region do not provoke an immediate military response from the US.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
understandingwar.org
Iran Update Special Report, June 14, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War
timesofisrael.com
US says it will reimpose blockade if Iran doesn’t fulfill deal, as shipping opens up - The Times of Israel
jpost.com
Donald Trump insists Iran has agreed to nuclear inspections - The Jerusalem Post
nypost.com
Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed again after US lifts blockade - New York Post