Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 11–27% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market probability of 17.5% is slightly higher than the derived estimate of 17%, indicating some market skepticism about an imminent invasion despite rising tensions.
Forecast update
Updated 22d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 17.5% chance of a US invasion of Iran before the end of 2026, which aligns with the current geopolitical tensions highlighted in recent news. The escalating conflict, including US strikes on Iranian targets and Iran's retaliatory actions, suggests a complex situation that could influence the likelihood of an invasion.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 11-27%.
Key development
Recent US military actions against Iranian targets have escalated tensions, but a formal invasion has not yet occurred.
Supporting signals
- ✓The US has increased military strikes against Iranian targets, indicating a willingness to engage militarily.
- ✓Iran's military response shows that tensions are escalating, which could lead to further conflict.
- ✓The potential for a diplomatic deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz suggests that an invasion may not be imminent.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs could reduce the likelihood of an invasion.
- ⚠Continued military escalation could lead to a miscalculation on either side, increasing the chance of conflict.
- ⚠Domestic political pressures in the US could influence military decisions regarding Iran.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current military engagements will continue without significant de-escalation.
- ✓No major diplomatic resolution occurs before the end of 2026.
- ✓The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, influencing US decision-making.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cryptobriefing.com
US strikes 140 Iranian targets after ship attack in Strait of Hormuz - Crypto Briefing
cryptobriefing.com
US, Iran exchange fire over Strait of Hormuz amid escalating 2026 conflict - Crypto Briefing
cryptobriefing.com
Iran strikes US military assets in Middle East amid 2026 conflict escalation - Crypto Briefing
bloomberg.com
A Return to $3 Gasoline? Here’s What It Will Take - Bloomberg.com