Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 5–13% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
⚡The market's 8% probability contrasts with recent news suggesting increased tensions and calls for regime change, indicating a potential underestimation of the situation's volatility.
Forecast update
Updated 19d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates an 8% probability that the Iranian regime will be overthrown, reflecting a low confidence in this outcome. Recent news suggests ongoing conflict and calls for vengeance, but overall sentiment appears to favor the regime's stability despite the turmoil.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 5-13%.
Key development
Former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney stated that the Iran war will continue until the regime negotiates or is overthrown, highlighting the ongoing instability.
Supporting signals
- ✓Ongoing military conflict suggests instability in Iran.
- ✓Calls for vengeance indicate internal dissent against the regime.
Risk factors
- ⚠Potential for external military intervention to escalate.
- ⚠Internal divisions may not lead to a unified opposition.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current military and political dynamics remain unchanged.
- ✓No significant external support for regime change emerges.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
skynews.com.au
Iran war will continue until regime negotiates or government is overthrown - Sky News Australia
cryptobriefing.com
Iranian lawmaker calls for vengeance after Khamenei assassination - Crypto Briefing
cryptobriefing.com
Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil supply amid conflict - Crypto Briefing
blockchain.news
US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds down to 5% - blockchain.news