Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 1–2% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
⚡The market probabilities suggest a much higher likelihood of rate hikes than cuts, indicating a significant divergence from the possibility of more than three cuts.
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The available markets suggest a very low probability of significant rate cuts in 2026, with only 1% probability for a cut in July 2026 and 26.3% for rates dropping to 1% or lower. Recent news indicates a strong expectation for rate hikes rather than cuts, which aligns with the market sentiment.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 1-2%.
Key development
Recent forecasts from major financial institutions indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates multiple times in 2026 due to persistent inflation.
Supporting signals
- ✓Bank of America and PGIM both predict multiple rate hikes in 2026.
- ✓The Fed's dot plot shows a consensus for higher rates among policymakers.
- ✓Recent economic data suggests persistent inflation, leading to expectations of rate increases.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected economic downturn could lead to a shift in Fed policy.
- ⚠Changes in inflation trends could alter the Fed's rate strategy.
- ⚠Political pressures may influence the Fed's decisions on rate cuts.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Inflation remains a significant concern for the Fed.
- ✓The economic resilience observed continues into 2026.
- ✓Current leadership at the Fed maintains a hawkish stance.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cnbc.com
Fed's 2026 rate path is underpriced by markets if this PGIM call is right - CNBC
mortgagenewsdaily.com
Mortgage Rates Spike in Response to Fed - Mortgage News Daily
cnbc.com
Bank of America expects three Fed hikes this year, says inflation is getting 'unambiguously worse' - CNBC
finance.yahoo.com
Fed 'dot plot': Almost half of FOMC members project at least one interest rate hike this year - Yahoo Finance
Underlying indicator
Fed Funds Rate
3.63%
Source: FRED · FEDFUNDS