Collective forecast
Likely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 64–85% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
Forecast update
Updated 18d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a strong likelihood (76.3%) that San Francisco will put the measure on the 2026 ballot. Recent news suggests ongoing discussions about reopening the Great Highway, which aligns with the sentiment in the market.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 64-85%.
Key development
Recent discussions in San Francisco indicate a push towards reopening the Great Highway, which may lead to the measure being placed on the ballot.
Supporting signals
- ✓Local advocates are actively campaigning for the measure.
- ✓Recent news articles show public interest in reopening the highway.
- ✓The city has previously considered similar measures.
Risk factors
- ⚠Opposition from environmental groups may hinder the measure's progress.
- ⚠Changes in city council priorities could affect the ballot decision.
- ⚠Public sentiment may shift against the measure as the election approaches.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current public interest in the measure remains high.
- ✓City council members support the measure's inclusion on the ballot.
- ✓No significant legal challenges arise against the measure.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
sfchronicle.com
Should S.F. spend $14 million to reopen the Great Highway to cars? - San Francisco Chronicle
politico.com
Noncitizen voting proposal stalls in LA - Politico
sfchronicle.com
S.F.’s November ballot is shaping up to be a long one. Here are measures voters could weigh in on - San Francisco Chronicle
cbsnews.com
Bay Area ballot measures could determine the future of transit agencies - CBS News