Supporting signals

• ✓The Iranian regime has shown resilience in the face of external threats, as evidenced by its military responses.
• ✓Calls for vengeance from lawmakers indicate a potential rallying effect around the regime.
• ✓Recent military conflicts have historically led to increased authoritarian measures rather than regime change.

Risk factors

• ⚠Unexpected large-scale protests could destabilize the regime.
• ⚠International sanctions or military actions could weaken the regime's grip on power.
• ⚠Internal divisions within the regime could lead to a power struggle.

This forecast assumes

• ✓Current military and political strategies of Iran remain consistent.
• ✓No significant external intervention occurs that could destabilize the regime.
• ✓The regime maintains control over key military and security forces.