Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 1–4% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
Forecast update
Updated 25d ago
Probability unchanged this week.
▲Confidence improving
▼Assumption weakened — No significant changes in maritime regulations or safety protocols occur.
▼Assumption weakened — The current geopolitical situation remains unstable.
Why this forecast
The market specifically addressing whether the user will make the IMO has a very low probability of 2.3%, indicating a strong consensus that the user is unlikely to qualify for the competition. This aligns with the user's question about their chances of making it to the IMO.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 1-4%.
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cnn.com
Iran strikes vessel pausing UN efforts to evacuate ships from Hormuz - CNN
nypost.com
Iran, Oman will start large-scale evacuation of ships through Strait of Hormuz, says IMO - New York Post
cnbc.com
UN agency pauses Hormuz ship evacuation plan after first vessel attack under peace deal - CNBC
newsweek.com
How the UN Will Evacuate Sailors Stranded in the Strait of Hormuz - Newsweek