Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
3 markets analyzed, but news signals conflict with market pricing — treat with caution.
Based on 3 prediction markets
90% range 1–13% · moderate uncertainty (market consensus)
⚡Market probabilities suggest a much higher likelihood of fewer than 80 daily transits compared to the current news indicating rising traffic levels.
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
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Why this forecast
The markets indicate a low probability of normal traffic levels returning to the Strait of Hormuz, with only 1% for July 15 and 8% for August 15. Recent news suggests that while transits are increasing, ongoing regional conflicts could hinder a full return to normalcy by the end of July.
Statistically pooled from 3 matched markets (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 1-13%.
Key development
Recent clashes between Hizbollah and Israel have raised concerns about the Strait of Hormuz's reopening.
Supporting signals
- ✓Recent reports indicate a two-month high in transits, suggesting a potential upward trend.
- ✓The phased evacuation plan by the IMO and Oman aims to improve transit safety.
Risk factors
- ⚠Escalation of regional conflicts could severely disrupt maritime traffic.
- ⚠Unexpected geopolitical developments may arise, impacting transit levels.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current geopolitical tensions do not escalate further.
- ✓The phased evacuation plan is effectively implemented.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 3+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cryptobriefing.com
Hizbollah-Israel clashes threaten Strait of Hormuz reopening - Crypto Briefing
seatrade-maritime.com
Hormuz transits at 2-month high, Iran issues passage instructions - Seatrade Maritime News
maritime-executive.com
IMO and Oman Launch “Phased Evacuation” for Transits in Strait of Hormuz - The Maritime Executive
maritime-executive.com
Strait of Hormuz Traffic is Rising, and Oil Prices are Plummeting - The Maritime Executive