51% — Will the US avoid a government shutdown in 2026?

Collective forecast

Synthesized

51%

Uncertain

Avoids shutdown51%

Shutdown occurs49%

Confidencemedium· ~ news mixed

2 markets analyzed, but news signals conflict with market pricing — treat with caution.

Based on 2 prediction markets

90% range 47–55% · tight market consensus

⚡The market probabilities suggest a higher likelihood of a shutdown than the current political sentiment among GOP senators, who are eager to avoid it.

Forecast update

Updated 23d ago

First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.

Why this forecast

The markets indicate a higher likelihood of a government shutdown occurring, with a 54.5% chance for November 2026 and a 47% chance for October 1st, 2026. Recent news suggests that GOP senators are anxious to avoid a shutdown before the midterm elections, which could influence negotiations and outcomes.

Statistically pooled from 2 matched markets (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 47-55%.

Key development

GOP senators are concerned about a potential government shutdown before the midterm elections, indicating a desire to avoid it.

Supporting signals

✓GOP senators are actively seeking to avoid a shutdown to prevent political fallout before elections.
✓The appropriations process is currently facing significant delays, which historically leads to shutdowns.

Risk factors

⚠Political disagreements could escalate, leading to a failure to pass necessary funding.
⚠Unexpected events or crises could shift priorities and lead to a shutdown.

This forecast assumes