Collective forecast
Likely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 67–86% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market probability of 78% significantly diverges from the news estimates, which suggest a much lower opening weekend gross.
Forecast update
Updated 21d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 78% probability that Christopher Nolan's *The Odyssey* will gross over $112.5 million in its domestic opening weekend. However, recent news suggests that estimates are falling short of this threshold, with projections ranging from $85 to $100 million, leading to a lower probability for the film exceeding the $112.5 million mark.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 67-86%.
Key development
Recent box office estimates for *The Odyssey* suggest an opening weekend gross of $85-$100 million, which is below the $112.5 million threshold.
Supporting signals
- ✓The film's unique Imax presentation is generating significant hype.
- ✓Christopher Nolan's films typically perform well at the box office.
- ✓Recent estimates indicate a strong opening, but not enough to exceed $112.5 million.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected competition from other films releasing the same weekend.
- ⚠Changes in audience interest or ticket sales leading up to the release.
- ⚠Economic factors affecting consumer spending on entertainment.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current box office estimates hold true.
- ✓No major changes in audience reception occur before the release.
- ✓Marketing efforts effectively reach the target audience.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
forbes.com
‘The Odyssey’ Box Office Estimates Are In, And They Are Near-Record High - Forbes
in.ign.com
The Odyssey Estimated Box Office Opening Suggests a Strong Start Powered by Imax Hype - IGN India
ign.com
The Odyssey Estimated Box Office Opening Suggests a Strong Start Powered by Imax Hype - IGN
slashfilm.com
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey Will Have A Bigger Box Office Opening Than Oppenheimer - SlashFilm