Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 15–35% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market's probability of 23.2% for the first announced AGI being considered AGI contrasts with the forecasted 15% likelihood of any AI lab's system being labeled AGI before 2030.
Forecast update
Updated 19d ago
Probability unchanged this week.
▲2 new supporting signals
▲Assumption strengthened — Current trends in AI development continue without major disruptions.
▲Assumption strengthened — The definitions and criteria for AGI remain consistent among major labs.
▼Assumption weakened — Current trends in AI development and investment continue without major disruptions.
▼Assumption weakened — No major breakthroughs in AI technology occur that significantly alter the landscape.
▼Assumption weakened — The definitions and criteria for AGI recognition remain consistent among major labs.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a low probability of a system being labeled AGI by a major lab before 2030, with only 23.2% of users agreeing that the first announced AGI will be considered AGI. Recent news suggests that major figures in AI, like Alexandre LeBrun, are hesitant to label their systems as AGI, which supports the market's skepticism.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 14-35%.
Key development
Major AI leaders are avoiding the AGI label, indicating a cautious approach to defining AGI.
Supporting signals
- ✓Industry leaders are hesitant to label their systems as AGI, reflecting a cautious approach.
- ✓Predictions of human-level AI do not equate to AGI, indicating a gap in expectations.
Risk factors
- ⚠A major breakthrough in AI could lead to a sudden shift in labeling.
- ⚠Changes in public perception or regulatory frameworks could influence definitions.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current trends in AI development continue without major disruptions.
- ✓The definitions and criteria for AGI remain consistent among major labs.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
techcrunch.com
Why AMI Labs’ Alexandre LeBrun won’t call his AI ‘AGI’ or ‘superintelligence’ - TechCrunch
ynetnews.com
Google AI chief: Creativity and taste will matter most in the age of human-level AI - Ynetnews
techcrunch.com
The only AI glossary you’ll need this year - TechCrunch
cryptonews.net
'AGI Is Too Important'—Ben Goertzel's Crypto Bet Against OpenAI - Cryptonews.net