Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 1–4% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
⚡The market probability of 31% is significantly lower than the 50% normalization projection mentioned by shipping officials, indicating a divergence in expectations.
Forecast update
Updated 23d ago
↓ 1.4percentage points this week
▲3 new supporting signals
▲Assumption strengthened — Current military tensions remain consistent without significant de-escalation.
▲Assumption strengthened — No new major conflicts emerge in the region.
▲Assumption strengthened — Shipping routes are not significantly altered by external factors.
▼Assumption weakened — Current military tensions will persist through July.
▼Assumption weakened — No significant diplomatic resolutions will be reached in the near term.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 31% probability that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of July, reflecting recent news that has raised concerns about ongoing conflicts in the region. The news suggests significant tensions that could hinder normalization efforts.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 1-4%.
Key development
Recent military actions and regional conflicts have escalated tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipping traffic.
Supporting signals
- ✓Iran's military actions have directly impacted shipping traffic in the Strait.
- ✓Shipping officials have expressed cautious optimism about normalization timelines.
- ✓Ongoing regional conflicts are likely to disrupt shipping routes.
Risk factors
- ⚠Escalation of military conflicts could further delay normalization.
- ⚠International diplomatic efforts may fail to stabilize the situation.
- ⚠Unexpected incidents could arise, impacting shipping traffic.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current military tensions remain consistent without significant de-escalation.
- ✓Shipping routes are not significantly altered by external factors.
- ✓No new major conflicts emerge in the region.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
blockchain.news
Iran strike report lifts Polymarket Hormuz normalization odds to 31.5% - blockchain.news
cryptobriefing.com
Hizbollah-Israel clashes threaten Strait of Hormuz reopening - Crypto Briefing
cryptobriefing.com
Iran strikes cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz, defying US ultimatum - Crypto Briefing
finance.yahoo.com
Trump team promises normal traffic in Strait of Hormuz within a month. Shipping officials project 50% at best. - Yahoo Finance