News-based estimate

No market data

What we know

A heat advisory has been issued for much of New York, indicating dangerously high temperatures.

The National Weather Service predicts heat index values near or above 100 degrees.

Recent reports indicate that New York is experiencing its hottest days of the year.

Confidencelow

No prediction market covers this directly — estimated from news coverage alone.

Read from 4 news sources — no market data available

The news suggests temperatures will likely exceed the specified range, contradicting any potential market expectations.

Why this forecast

There are no relevant prediction markets for the specific temperature question regarding New York City. Recent news indicates a significant heat wave affecting the region, with temperatures expected to exceed the range specified in the user's question.

No prediction markets cover this topic — read from recent news only.

Key development

A heat advisory has been issued for New York City, with heat index values expected to reach 104°F.

Supporting signals

  • The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory, indicating extreme heat conditions.
  • Recent news reports highlight record-breaking temperatures across New York State.

Risk factors

  • Unexpected weather changes could lead to lower temperatures than forecasted.
  • Local microclimates may cause temperature variations within the city.

This forecast assumes

  • Current weather forecasts remain accurate leading up to July 13.
  • No significant weather events (like storms) disrupt the heat wave.

How this could unfold

A persistent heat wave affects the northeastern United States.
High humidity levels contribute to elevated heat index values.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 13?
Increased health risks for vulnerable populations due to extreme heat.
Potential strain on energy resources due to higher demand for cooling.

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Toggle the assumptions this forecast depends on, stack as many as you like, and run them together.

Current weather forecasts remain accurate leading up to July 13.
No significant weather events (like storms) disrupt the heat wave.