Foresight

Collective forecast

Direct match
21%

Very Unlikely

Tesla has more21%
Waymo has more79%
Confidencelow· ▼ news bearish

Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.

Based on 1 prediction market

90% range 13–32% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)

⚡The market's 21% probability contrasts sharply with the strong evidence of Waymo's current dominance in the autonomous ridehailing sector.

Forecast update

Updated 21d ago

First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.

Why this forecast

The market indicates a 21% probability that Tesla will have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo by January 2, 2027. Recent news highlights Waymo's significant lead in the robotaxi market, suggesting that Tesla may struggle to catch up.

Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 13-32%.

Key development

Waymo has expanded its robotaxi service to four new cities, further solidifying its market position.

Supporting signals

  • ✓Waymo's recent expansion into four new cities indicates strong growth and market capture.
  • ✓Reports show Waymo currently has far more autonomous vehicles in operation compared to Tesla.

Risk factors

  • ⚠Tesla could accelerate its rollout of autonomous vehicles significantly.
  • ⚠Technological breakthroughs in Tesla's Full Self-Driving could change the competitive landscape.

This forecast assumes

  • ✓Waymo maintains its current pace of expansion and vehicle deployment.
  • ✓Tesla's development timelines for autonomous vehicles do not significantly improve.

How this could unfold

Waymo's aggressive expansion strategy continues to attract users.
↓
Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology faces delays or regulatory hurdles.
↓
Tesla has more (21%)
↓
Increased competition in the autonomous ridehailing market could lead to lower prices.
↓
Potential partnerships or acquisitions in the sector could reshape market dynamics.

Explore

Run the simulation

Replay this forecast 1,000 times, drawing from its own uncertainty band each time — watch how often tesla has more actually happens.

Build a scenario

Toggle the assumptions this forecast depends on, stack as many as you like, and run them together.

Waymo maintains its current pace of expansion and vehicle deployment.
Tesla's development timelines for autonomous vehicles do not significantly improve.

Sources & data

Prediction markets · 1+
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 202721% · Manifold
Recent context · 4 sources+

cleantechnica.com

This Robotaxi Company Is Growing Its Share Of US Market — Not Waymo, Not Tesla - CleanTechnica

Wed, 08 Ju

nai500.com

Tesla Keeps Promising, This Self-Driving Stock Is Already Delivering - NAI500

Sat, 04 Ju

investors.com

Waymo Widens Lead Over Tesla, Expands Robotaxis To Four New Cities - Investor's Business Daily

Wed, 08 Ju

cnbc.com

Waymo starts driverless rides in four more U.S. markets as expansion accelerates - CNBC

Wed, 08 Ju
← Ask another question