Collective forecast
Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 21–46% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market's probability of 32% does not fully reflect the significant increase in emissions reported for 2025, suggesting a bearish outlook.
Forecast update
Updated 22d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a 32% probability that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 will be lower than in 2025. Recent news highlights a record increase in global emissions in 2025, suggesting a challenging environment for emissions reduction in 2026.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 21-46%.
Key development
Global CO2-equivalent emissions reached a record 41.0 billion metric tons in 2025, increasing 1.1%.
Supporting signals
- ✓The Energy Institute reported a 1.1% increase in global CO2-equivalent emissions in 2025.
- ✓The U.S. emissions rebounded, contributing to the overall increase in global emissions.
Risk factors
- ⚠Potential for stronger regulatory measures to reduce emissions.
- ⚠Technological advancements in carbon capture and renewable energy could change the trajectory.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current trends in emissions continue without significant policy changes.
- ✓Economic growth does not lead to a proportional increase in emissions reductions.
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
forbes.com
Global Emissions Hit A New Record As U.S. Emissions Rebounded - Forbes
worldoil.com
S&P Global: Canadian oil sands emissions intensity falls 31% since 2009 - World Oil
sciencedaily.com
Major errors found in Al Gore-founded Climate TRACE database - ScienceDaily
sciencedaily.com
Major errors found in Al Gore-founded climate TRACE database - ScienceDaily