Collective forecast
Very Likely
2 markets agree within 0pp on moderate trading volume.
Based on 2 prediction markets
90% range 89–89% · tight market consensus
Forecast update
Updated 19d ago
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Why this forecast
The markets indicate a strong belief that Apple will announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026, which aligns with recent news about Apple's plans to launch multiple new iPhone models, including a foldable one, by early 2027. This suggests a high likelihood of a release before 2027.
Statistically pooled from 2 matched markets (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 89-89%.
Key development
Apple plans to launch at least five new iPhone models through early 2027, including a foldable model.
Supporting signals
- ✓Apple's plans for five new iPhone models through early 2027 include a foldable version.
- ✓The company has increased its production targets for foldable devices significantly.
Risk factors
- ⚠Potential delays in production or development could push back the release.
- ⚠Market competition from other smartphone manufacturers could impact Apple's strategy.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Apple maintains its current product development timeline.
- ✓No major technological hurdles arise in the production of foldable devices.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 2+
Recent context · 4 sources+
analyticsinsight.net
Apple Plans Five New iPhones Through 2027 as Foldable Production Target Rises - Analytics Insight
cnbc.com
Apple plans five new iPhones through 2027, eyes Chinese-made chips amid foldable push, reports say - CNBC
macrumors.com
iPhone Ultra 2 Gets Green Light for Development, Says Leaker - MacRumors
notebookcheck.net
Apple's first Ultras are coming: 20 new products in 2026–2027 according to Bloomberg - Notebookcheck