News-based estimate

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Why this forecast

There are no relevant prediction markets that directly address the likelihood of a goalkeeper scoring a goal at the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. The available markets focus on team outcomes rather than individual player actions. Therefore, the probabilities are based on the general rarity of goalkeepers scoring in football matches.

News-based estimate based on the rarity of goalkeepers scoring goals in professional football.

Supporting signals

  • Historically, goalkeepers rarely score goals in professional football.
  • The role of a goalkeeper is primarily defensive, making scoring unlikely.

Risk factors

  • A significant change in game dynamics or rules that allows for more scoring opportunities for goalkeepers.
  • An extraordinary event where a goalkeeper takes a penalty kick or scores during a set piece.

This forecast assumes

  • The traditional roles of players in football remain unchanged.
  • No major rule changes occur that would increase the likelihood of goalkeepers scoring.

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Build a scenario

Toggle the assumptions this forecast depends on, stack as many as you like, and run them together.

The traditional roles of players in football remain unchanged.
No major rule changes occur that would increase the likelihood of goalkeepers scoring.