Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 1–2% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
⚡The market probability of 1% for 'Yes' is significantly lower than the implied likelihood based on recent news developments.
Forecast update
Updated 20d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a very low probability of at least one of Curaçao, Ivory Coast, or Uzbekistan making it to the top 3 in the FIFA World Cup, reflecting their recent performances and standings. Recent news confirms that Curaçao has been eliminated, while Ivory Coast has advanced but is not favored to reach the top 3.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 1-2%.
Key development
Curaçao has been eliminated from the tournament, and while Ivory Coast advanced, they are not expected to finish in the top 3.
Supporting signals
- ✓Curaçao has been eliminated from the tournament.
- ✓Ivory Coast's advancement does not guarantee a top 3 finish.
- ✓Historical performance of these teams in World Cups is generally low.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected strong performance from Ivory Coast in knockout stages.
- ⚠Other teams underperforming, allowing for a surprise top 3 finish.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Ivory Coast's current form continues.
- ✓No major upsets occur in the knockout stages.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
espn.com
2026 World Cup: Paris Hilton, Brad Pitt headline celebrities - ESPN
foxsports.com
Ecuador ADVANCES With Late Goal 🚨 Germany, Ivory Coast Finish Top-2 & Curaçao’s Journey Ends - FOX Sports
foxsports.com
Curaçao vs Ivory Coast Quick Highlights | 2026 FIFA World Cup™ - FOX Sports
espn.com
Curaçao 0-2 Ivory Coast (Jun 25, 2026) Game Analysis - ESPN