Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with high trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 6–16% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market's 10% probability for Tesla having more rides contrasts sharply with the strong evidence of Waymo's current dominance.
Forecast update
Updated 26d ago
Probability unchanged this week.
▲2 new supporting signals
▲Assumption strengthened — Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology does not achieve significant breakthroughs by 2026.
▲Assumption strengthened — Waymo maintains its current operational lead and expansion strategy.
▼Assumption weakened — Market conditions remain stable without major disruptions.
▼Assumption weakened — Tesla's technology does not achieve significant breakthroughs in the near term.
▼Assumption weakened — Waymo maintains its current pace of expansion and service improvement.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a low probability of Tesla having more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026, reflecting the current dominance of Waymo in the autonomous ride-hailing space. Recent news highlights Waymo's expansion and significant ride volume, suggesting they will likely maintain their lead over Tesla.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 6-16%.
Key development
Waymo has significantly more self-driving cars and robotaxi users compared to Tesla, with recent expansions into new markets.
Supporting signals
- ✓Waymo is currently offering driverless rides in multiple U.S. markets, indicating strong operational capacity.
- ✓Recent reports show Waymo's ride volume at half a million rides per week, far exceeding Tesla's current capabilities.
Risk factors
- ⚠Tesla could accelerate its rollout of fully autonomous rides unexpectedly.
- ⚠Regulatory changes could impact the deployment of autonomous vehicles.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Waymo maintains its current operational lead and expansion strategy.
- ✓Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology does not achieve significant breakthroughs by 2026.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cleantechnica.com
This Robotaxi Company Is Growing Its Share Of US Market — Not Waymo, Not Tesla - CleanTechnica
nai500.com
Tesla Keeps Promising, This Self-Driving Stock Is Already Delivering - NAI500
cnbc.com
Waymo starts driverless rides in four more U.S. markets as expansion accelerates - CNBC
247wallst.com
Waymo Just Recalled 3,800 Robotaxis. Is Google’s Self-Driving Dream Hitting a Wall? - 24/7 Wall St.