Collective forecast
Uncertain
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 37–65% · wide band — highly uncertain (a thin, low-agreement signal)
Forecast update
Updated 22d ago
↓ 0.3percentage points this week
▲Confidence improving
▼Assumption weakened — Investor interest remains stable despite market fluctuations.
▼Assumption weakened — No major external events disrupt the coinflip.
Why this forecast
The market for the Daily Coinflip indicates a 50.5% probability of it occurring, which aligns closely with the user's question. Given the lack of significant news impacting this specific event, the market price serves as a reliable indicator.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 36-64%.
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
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