Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 1–2% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
⚡The market suggests a higher chance for France than recent news would imply, given their recent loss to Spain.
Forecast update
Updated 22d ago
↓ 42.1percentage points this week
▼Confidence weakening
▲2 new supporting signals
▲Assumption strengthened — Current team forms and player conditions remain stable.
▲Assumption strengthened — No significant changes in coaching or tactics occur before the next match.
▼Assumption weakened — Both teams field their strongest lineups.
▼Assumption weakened — Current form and momentum are indicative of future performance.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a low probability of France winning the World Cup, which aligns with recent news that Spain defeated France in the semifinals, suggesting Spain is currently the stronger team. The news highlights Spain's recent success and France's elimination, which likely impacts the perception of their chances in future matches.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 1-2%.
Key development
Spain delivered a surprise rout of France, winning 2-0 in the World Cup semifinals.
Supporting signals
- ✓Spain's recent 2-0 victory over France in the semifinals demonstrates their current superiority.
- ✓Spain's unbeaten streak of 37 games suggests they are in excellent form.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected injuries to key players could impact Spain's performance.
- ⚠France may regroup and improve their strategy in future matches.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current team forms and player conditions remain stable.
- ✓No significant changes in coaching or tactics occur before the next match.
Explore
Run the simulation
Replay this forecast 1,000 times, drawing from its own uncertainty band each time — watch how often france wins actually happens.
Build a scenario
Toggle the assumptions this forecast depends on, stack as many as you like, and run them together.
Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
latimes.com
Spain delivers surprise rout of France, clinches berth into World Cup final - Los Angeles Times
foxsports.com
France vs. Spain Is The World Cup Final That Arrived Early - FOX Sports
npr.org
Spain sparkles to shock France 2-0 and advance to the World Cup final - NPR
skysports.com
Live Commentary - France vs Spain | 14.07.2026 - Sky Sports